PORN/SEX/ANCESTORY AND ANYTHING ELSE THAT WILL GET ME MORE HITS
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Let's get previewing this weekend's sport.
PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY 21ST APRIL
12:45 Tottenham (2.7) Draw (3.3) Arsenal (2.65) Live on PREMPLUS
It's been the most famous split since William and Kate, David Dein has left Arsenal and has left many unanswered questions, will Arsene Wenger stay? will the players sign new contracts if Wenger won't? would Peter Hill Wood's mum even recognise him?
It's funny to think of Arsenal as the club supposedly standingup for English rights, personally I feel they might be digging a hole for themselves, or it could just be that there holding out for a better offer. hmm. Anyway on the pitch this probably won't affect the game but what will is Fabregas absence. Tottenham will be hungry for revenge but can they do it? It should be a highly entertaining game and goals could be the order of the day. Take the over 2.5 goals at 2.05 with BET365.
15:00 Bolton (1.91) Draw (3.4) Reading (4.3)
Both these men have done remarkable jobs on little resources i.e Keeping Anelka, Diouf and Lita on the striaght and narrow despite limited brain resources. In game terms Reading are over-priced here but with Coppell not seeming so keen to get into Europe it's worth swerving match betting and get on the anytime markets. Keep an eye on team news as to who gets the start out of Kitson or Doyle and take them in the anytime market. Doyle is available at 3.8 with BET365 and Kitson 4.0 with Coral. The reason is, that like a poodle who thinks there are an alasatian Reading are not afraid to attack, Bolton's defence is strong but Reading can breach it and this is the way to go on this game.
15:00 Charlton (2.1) Draw (3.3) Sheffield U (3.65)
Guts, courage, bravery all words to describe anyone willing to take on K-Fed as a potential husband and all words used to describe the winners of this game. It's the proverbial six pointer expect it's worth three but you know what I mean. It's all about who wants it most on the day, to me it's a betting minefield but if for some reason you need to make it more interesting with a bet, then Darren Bent at 2.75 with Skybet in the anytime market could be the way to go.
15:00 Fulham (2.35) Draw (3.3) Blackburn (3.15)
After victories over Spain, Sweden and feeding thousands with a loaf Lawrie Sanchez is widely held as a miracle worker, what isn't so well known is that as club manager of Wycombe the fans were not sorry to see him leave. Which is not to say Sanchez is a bad manager but don't be suprised if he doesn't keep Fulham up, the malaise (a kind of fancy salad cream) runs deep there. Betting wise this is hard to call, but it doesn't take Marty McFly or Doctor Who to tell you Fulham's defence will concede and Benedict McCarthy can be backed at 3.4 with Skybet in the anytime market to make Fulham feel even sicker.
15:00 Liverpool (1.5) Draw (4.5) Wigan (8.5)
I once served Emile Heskey popcorn in a cinema once(what a claim to fame) and somewhat unsuprisingly he dropped it, still he might just be worth a little punt to score here against his distracted old club. Heskey is 5.0 in the anytime market with extrabet.
15:00 Watford (2.75) Draw (3.33) Manchester City (2.6)
Watching Man city is very much like watching Grease is the word on ITV, an inferior version of a bigger rival, the interest is low and the only saving grace is some of the City players dress better than Sinitta. I'm not really sure where this is leading, but then you try talk about this game with interest, Watford are all but down this could free them up to play as well as they have against Pompey or as bad as they have all season. City are safe, but Pearce maybe not so. In the end I'd keep hold of money both in terms of ticket and betting, the best of the bad bunch may be to bet on DeMarcus Beasley at 5.0 (victor chandler) in the anytime market. Beasley is playing for a new contract (god knows why he'd want it) and is hitting a bit of form, small stakes advised, not least for Joey Barton's heart.
15:00 West Ham (2.5) Draw (3.4) Everton (2.75)
In the wise words of the great philospher, Marshall Mathers, you only get one shot in this lifetime and you've got to lose yourself in the moment. Now the West Ham players have cracked the losing bit but I'm not sure that was quite what Mr Shady meant. This is make or break for them and more than likely will be break, Everton are coming with a good end of season run, Arteta can West Ham ragged and at 2.75 with Bet365 and Paddy power we should and I quote 'smack that.'
17:15 Man Utd (1.22) Draw (6.5) Middlesbrough (15)
Chelsea fans will cling to the thoughts that Boro have been difficult opponents in the past, in the same way Tony Blair clings to power, the results however will be the same, a disappointing prelude leading to all out war. Get on Rooney at 2.38 (BET365) and Ronaldo 2.65 (expekt) in the anytime market.
SUNDAY 22ND APRIL 2007
13:30 Newcastle (7) Draw (4) Chelsea (1.57)
Chelsea fans will be more heartened by the fact that Newcastle really are god awful and that Glenn Roeder has proven to be about as popular succesor as Gordon Brown will. It's worth getting big on Chelsea and to add to this Sean Wright Phillips is a great value 6.0 in the anytime market with Skybet to continue his fine run of form against an awful Newcastle defence.
16:00 Aston Villa (2.25) Draw (3.25) Portsmouth (3.45)
Aston Villa seem good value at 2.25(boylesports and paddy power) to continue their recent good form and defeat Pompey. In a game which someone at Sky decided we wanted to see despite it being totally meaningless.
COCA COLA CHAMPIONSHIP
Picking the coca cola championship is tougher than working out the plot of a David Lynch movie and with just as many twists and turns. At the moment leaders and massive form side Sunderland look the best side but that could all change with a tough game to Colchester, Sunderland may come through but that's not where the value lies. The 3.0 on Cureton to score anytime with bet365 is the value on a player on fire and with Sunderland are conceding around a goal a game.
Other promotion hopefuls Derby have an easy home game against Luton, but the odds reflect that and Birmingham have a tough game against local rivals Wolves.
At the other end Barnsley 2.13(extrabet) look good value to beat a Palace who will have given up for the season, if they ever got started. Leeds at 4.5 the away win/3.6 the draw seem good value not to lose at a Southampton side who have been hugely disappointing. On the other side Southend's fight could be over if they lose to a Plymouth side who are playing some good football these last few weeks.
The best bargain since the Primark riots surely has to be had at the tills of extrabet where Sheff Wed are the bet of the week at 1.79. They face a Coventry side who might as well turn up with their bucket and spade, though don't let Kevin kyle near the donkeys or confusion will be the order of the day.
COCA COLA LEAGUE ONE
Into League one and unlike an episode of Neighbours, every match here seems to mean something. The short price value is on Swansea to leave Brighton all at sea. Mid price value lies in form Carlisle to beat jittery Bristol City, and Oldham to beat Crewe. Those who like their shots long could do worse than 8.0(ladbrokes) and 7.0(boylesports) on Rotherham and Bournemouth to cause some shocks. As usual cover with the draw, but Yeovil are having more problems at home than a tennant of Frank Spencer, Forest are also showing all the signs of stability of a Frank Spencer coffee table and it could be worth an interest in these two sides. Rotherham have the pressure off after relegation and Mark Robins men have shown lots of encouraging signs at the end of the season, maybe just too little to late. Bournemouth are battling relegation and needs the points and have the potential to worry Forest.
COCA COLA LEAGUE TWO
As the season nears end picking a winner becomes harder than ever but like a CHav on a Friday night were always willing to have a go, so here is a few League two games worth looking out for.
Bristol Rovers are good value at 2.2 (general) to beat Lincoln, Rovers are coming with a late run to make the playoff, while Lincoln seem to be doing everything in their power to avoid the playoffs. Barnet are good value not to lose at Grimsby at 3.28 the win(extrabet) 3.4 the draw(stan james/bet 365) the underhill boys are on a very good run of form including victories hartlepool and rochdale, while Grimsby took a tanking last weekend at Accrington 4-1.
For those who like their prices a little shorter a good home double banker is Swindon at home to the awful Mansfield and Wrexham at home to ready relegated Torquay.
SCOTLAND
EUROPE
RUGBY: In the Union code the Heineken Cup semi finals take place and it could be an all English final with like the champions league three out of the four semi finalists being English. Northampton will no doubt be distracted by a releagation battle and wasps should be backed at 1.91(tote/vc/uk betting) to cover an eight point handicap.
Elsewhere in the League code there are two big games with Hull v Bradford and the big one St Helens v Leeds, Leeds have had a great season but St Helens have been on a different level this week and can be backed with Huddersfield in a double at 2.28 with extrabet.
CRICKET:As the world cup super eight fizzles out quicker than a pop idol's career attention might turn this weekend to the domestic game that has started and those who haven't already had a bet for the league could do worse than Hampshire at 3.75 with betfred and sussex at 4.5 with boylesports. In League two Nottingham look great value at 3.75 with Boylesports.
SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS: Avoiding the O'Sullivan top half of the draw seems to be the way to go here, the top halfd of the draw is loaded with talent, the bottom not so.
Peter Ebdon at 15.0 (expekt and betfred) and Murphy 11.0(power and stan james) are where our money is going in the wide open botom half. At half the odds a final place wrth taking each way.
SPORT IN FOCUS
NBA BASKETBALL PLAYOFFS PREVIEW
Now things get interesting I'll be turning a lot of my attention to the NBA although I have to confess I'm very disappointed with the lack of bookies who get involved in this market here in the Uk, centrebet again are the ones who have at least made the effort.
TITLE ODDS
Dallas Mavericks
3.25 title/ 2.38 conference.
GOOD Wealth of talent, Dirk, Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, Howard.
BAD: Can Dirk do it in the big big games.
UGLY:The depth of the wild west means every game wil be a tough one for the Mavs even the Warriors.
BOTTOM LINE: Can make finals and at 3.25 with betfair are worth a small shout to make it there year. The 2.38 the conference is a little too short though.
San Antonio Spurs
6.2/4.5 conference
GOOD: Veteran experience, Tim Duncan, Ginobli, Parker, Horry,Poppovitch been there done that.
BAD: In the wrong conference have to adjust there game to the speed merchants.
UGLY: The lack of depth and aging legs could cost them with deep series against denver, phoenix and dallas.
BOTTOM LINE: It's battle of heads versus legs and in the head Spurs are the match for anyone, worth taking on small odds to in both conference and title.
Phoenix Suns
4.9/3.97 conference.
THE GOOD: Wealth of talent, Steve Nash bigtime player, Amare Stoudamire hungry, Marion, Thomas, Bell, Barbosa.
Caoch D'Antoni one of the best in the business.
THE BAD: Have to go through deep west and open against Lakers who caused them big problems last time.
THE UGLY: Lack of depth could tire them as not as deep as many of the other sides,plus play a fast high energy game, it cost them last year when series went long.
BOTTOM LINE: Suns have as good a chance as anyone and are my probable favourites but when you can get them and Dallas and San Antonio on side it's got to be done.
Detroit Pistons
9.2/2.88 conference
THE GOOD: Wallace/Prince/Billups all been there done that and in the weak east.
THE BAD: Chris Webber is no Ben Wallace
THE UGLY: Flip Saunder not as good at game tactics as many of the other coaches, somehow didn't win it last year when they had Ben Wallace and the record win season.
BOTTOM LINE: Much too short a price about a side who have no viable Shaq dealer, not to mention how they'll deal with the run and gun west sides.
Miami Heat
16/ 5.5 conference.
THE GOOD: defending champs, game on the line, pressure situation, there's few to trust more than riley, shaq and d-wade.
BAD: Got a tough first series against chicago, high pick and roll game might impact wade's shoulder, wallace can handle shaq.
THE UGLY:Vulnerable players d-wade and shaq are always one big injury away from total breakdown, also whether they have the hunger to repeat.
BOTTOM LINE: In a weak conference the 5.5 seems good value as long as Wade and Shaq stay healthy, Miami are a match for anyone out East.
Houston Rockets
27/ 15.5 Conference
THE GOOD: TMAC/YAO and the defence.
THE BAD: The deep west.
THE UGLY: Not as deep as other sides, a healthy in head and body bonzi wells would have been a huge difference maker sadly he's not there, in either sense.
THE BOTTOM LINE: On the day the Rockets can beat anyone and it could be worth siding with them in individual matches to pull off a few shocks.
Cleveland Cavaliers
22/5.9 conference
THE GOOD: because they have an easy first round game against injury plagued washington and King Lebron
THE BAD: King Lebron might find it easy to be like jordan in regular season but jordan did it time and time again in the playoffs, doubts over whether lebron can be like MJ.
THE UGLY: A lack of supporting cast, ther are no pippens/grant's or rodman's on the cavs.
THE BOTTOM LINE: The draw helps the cavs but Lebron will need some help not least from himself.
Utah Jazz
47.0/38.0 conference
THE GOOD: Jerry Sloan expert coach whose has been there and done it.
THE BAD: Young and lack of playoff savvy.
THE UGLY: Loss of Kirilenko is huge.
THE BOTTOM LINE: You can never underestimate a Jerry Sloan side not least because they have a habit of proving annoying opponents to the Rockets. The loss of Kirilenko turns them from value outsiders, to just outsiders.
Chicago Bulls
32/ 14.0 conference
THE GOOD: The addition and presence of ben wallace gives them a shaq killer.
THE BAD:Are they winners, choked against new jersey to cost them a much easier run to the title.
THE UGLY: That run they now must go through miami,detroit, possibly cleveland or new jersey and then the winners of the west, tough, very tough.
BOTTOM LINE. If Chicago can come through Miami and it's a big if they could be good value for the East at 14.0 there worth supporting.
Washington Wizards
260/101 conference
THE GOOD: Antwan Jamieson never say die.
THE BAD: The lack of his support.
THE UGLY: Because arenas and butler are huge players that are mssing, Arena their points, Butler their heartbeat.
Toronto Raptors
48/11.0 conference
THE Good:pace and speed could outrun anyone in the east.
the bad:bargani and mo pete out.
the ugly: missed washington, now have to play on fire new jersey the only other east side not to be outpaced.
bottom line: Toronto
Los Angeles Lakers
70/ 51.0 conference
the good: emperor kobe.
the bad: the rest of them.
the ugly: how they going to stop nash and stodamire.
the bottom line: nevermind the famous triangle they'll need the bermuda triangle to get out of the wild west.
Denver Nuggets
44/ 35.0 conference
the good: on paper match up well.
the bad: in experience and winning not so.
the ugly: nene and camby's foul trouble or melo's temper could cost them.
the bottom line: If a lot of elements click in the nuggets can cause lots of problems, but their elders Spurs should teach them a lesson or two about team basketball.
Golden State Warriors
250/ 101 conference
the good: regular season record against the mavs.
the bad: this is the playoffs.
the ugly: the mavs know how to get it done and have a wealth more options.
the bottom line: can cause the mavericks problems with their big guards and a coach who knows how to get inside drik-s head but should be happy just to be there.
Orlando Magic
150/51.0 conference
the good: hill and millic have a point to prove.howard will be difficult to deal with.
the bad:so do detroit.
the ugly: worst team in the playoffs.
the bottom line:should be happy to steal a game against the pistons.
New Jersey Nets
90
the good: kidd, carter mikki moore,hot form at right time.
the bad:
the ugly:no legit big man if they came up against the wallaces or shaq.
the bottom line:the nets can spring a few shocks or two but it's too much to ask them to go all the way.
RECOMMENDATIONS
PLAYOFF MATCHUPS: New Jersey can beat Toronto at 2.30 with Centrebet and a nice juicky stake should be placed, in a fifty fifty series Miami look good value at 2.20 to overcome Chicago.
East conference winner value bet : New Jersey Nets 20/1 Ladbrokes: This could be worth some small stakes as New Jersey can certainly overcome Toronto, they have no reason to fear Cleveland and that puts them in the Conference final.
EAST CONFERENCE WINNER: Miami and Chicago 5.5/ 7.0 ladbrokes. Slightly bigger stakes on these two, the bet is to oppose Detroit and both these sides have the capability of going all the way whoever wins this could well be the finalists in the western boys whipping race.
WEST CONFERENCE WINNER: Phoenix and San Antonio are both capable of winning the wild west and look value.
OVERALL WINNER: Dallas/Phoenix and San Antonio are the three teams I can see winning this and if you can hve them all on side and still be making profit then it needs to be done, big stakes on each of these will return wins, it's one of the biggest value bets of the year.
That's us for the weekend have a great sports weekend in the meanwhile I'm out of here quicker than a ticket for Bon Jovi at wembley, but with better hairstyles.
Let's get previewing this weekend's sport.
PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY 21ST APRIL
12:45 Tottenham (2.7) Draw (3.3) Arsenal (2.65) Live on PREMPLUS
It's been the most famous split since William and Kate, David Dein has left Arsenal and has left many unanswered questions, will Arsene Wenger stay? will the players sign new contracts if Wenger won't? would Peter Hill Wood's mum even recognise him?
It's funny to think of Arsenal as the club supposedly standingup for English rights, personally I feel they might be digging a hole for themselves, or it could just be that there holding out for a better offer. hmm. Anyway on the pitch this probably won't affect the game but what will is Fabregas absence. Tottenham will be hungry for revenge but can they do it? It should be a highly entertaining game and goals could be the order of the day. Take the over 2.5 goals at 2.05 with BET365.
15:00 Bolton (1.91) Draw (3.4) Reading (4.3)
Both these men have done remarkable jobs on little resources i.e Keeping Anelka, Diouf and Lita on the striaght and narrow despite limited brain resources. In game terms Reading are over-priced here but with Coppell not seeming so keen to get into Europe it's worth swerving match betting and get on the anytime markets. Keep an eye on team news as to who gets the start out of Kitson or Doyle and take them in the anytime market. Doyle is available at 3.8 with BET365 and Kitson 4.0 with Coral. The reason is, that like a poodle who thinks there are an alasatian Reading are not afraid to attack, Bolton's defence is strong but Reading can breach it and this is the way to go on this game.
15:00 Charlton (2.1) Draw (3.3) Sheffield U (3.65)
Guts, courage, bravery all words to describe anyone willing to take on K-Fed as a potential husband and all words used to describe the winners of this game. It's the proverbial six pointer expect it's worth three but you know what I mean. It's all about who wants it most on the day, to me it's a betting minefield but if for some reason you need to make it more interesting with a bet, then Darren Bent at 2.75 with Skybet in the anytime market could be the way to go.
15:00 Fulham (2.35) Draw (3.3) Blackburn (3.15)
After victories over Spain, Sweden and feeding thousands with a loaf Lawrie Sanchez is widely held as a miracle worker, what isn't so well known is that as club manager of Wycombe the fans were not sorry to see him leave. Which is not to say Sanchez is a bad manager but don't be suprised if he doesn't keep Fulham up, the malaise (a kind of fancy salad cream) runs deep there. Betting wise this is hard to call, but it doesn't take Marty McFly or Doctor Who to tell you Fulham's defence will concede and Benedict McCarthy can be backed at 3.4 with Skybet in the anytime market to make Fulham feel even sicker.
15:00 Liverpool (1.5) Draw (4.5) Wigan (8.5)
I once served Emile Heskey popcorn in a cinema once(what a claim to fame) and somewhat unsuprisingly he dropped it, still he might just be worth a little punt to score here against his distracted old club. Heskey is 5.0 in the anytime market with extrabet.
15:00 Watford (2.75) Draw (3.33) Manchester City (2.6)
Watching Man city is very much like watching Grease is the word on ITV, an inferior version of a bigger rival, the interest is low and the only saving grace is some of the City players dress better than Sinitta. I'm not really sure where this is leading, but then you try talk about this game with interest, Watford are all but down this could free them up to play as well as they have against Pompey or as bad as they have all season. City are safe, but Pearce maybe not so. In the end I'd keep hold of money both in terms of ticket and betting, the best of the bad bunch may be to bet on DeMarcus Beasley at 5.0 (victor chandler) in the anytime market. Beasley is playing for a new contract (god knows why he'd want it) and is hitting a bit of form, small stakes advised, not least for Joey Barton's heart.
15:00 West Ham (2.5) Draw (3.4) Everton (2.75)
In the wise words of the great philospher, Marshall Mathers, you only get one shot in this lifetime and you've got to lose yourself in the moment. Now the West Ham players have cracked the losing bit but I'm not sure that was quite what Mr Shady meant. This is make or break for them and more than likely will be break, Everton are coming with a good end of season run, Arteta can West Ham ragged and at 2.75 with Bet365 and Paddy power we should and I quote 'smack that.'
17:15 Man Utd (1.22) Draw (6.5) Middlesbrough (15)
Chelsea fans will cling to the thoughts that Boro have been difficult opponents in the past, in the same way Tony Blair clings to power, the results however will be the same, a disappointing prelude leading to all out war. Get on Rooney at 2.38 (BET365) and Ronaldo 2.65 (expekt) in the anytime market.
SUNDAY 22ND APRIL 2007
13:30 Newcastle (7) Draw (4) Chelsea (1.57)
Chelsea fans will be more heartened by the fact that Newcastle really are god awful and that Glenn Roeder has proven to be about as popular succesor as Gordon Brown will. It's worth getting big on Chelsea and to add to this Sean Wright Phillips is a great value 6.0 in the anytime market with Skybet to continue his fine run of form against an awful Newcastle defence.
16:00 Aston Villa (2.25) Draw (3.25) Portsmouth (3.45)
Aston Villa seem good value at 2.25(boylesports and paddy power) to continue their recent good form and defeat Pompey. In a game which someone at Sky decided we wanted to see despite it being totally meaningless.
COCA COLA CHAMPIONSHIP
Picking the coca cola championship is tougher than working out the plot of a David Lynch movie and with just as many twists and turns. At the moment leaders and massive form side Sunderland look the best side but that could all change with a tough game to Colchester, Sunderland may come through but that's not where the value lies. The 3.0 on Cureton to score anytime with bet365 is the value on a player on fire and with Sunderland are conceding around a goal a game.
Other promotion hopefuls Derby have an easy home game against Luton, but the odds reflect that and Birmingham have a tough game against local rivals Wolves.
At the other end Barnsley 2.13(extrabet) look good value to beat a Palace who will have given up for the season, if they ever got started. Leeds at 4.5 the away win/3.6 the draw seem good value not to lose at a Southampton side who have been hugely disappointing. On the other side Southend's fight could be over if they lose to a Plymouth side who are playing some good football these last few weeks.
The best bargain since the Primark riots surely has to be had at the tills of extrabet where Sheff Wed are the bet of the week at 1.79. They face a Coventry side who might as well turn up with their bucket and spade, though don't let Kevin kyle near the donkeys or confusion will be the order of the day.
COCA COLA LEAGUE ONE
Into League one and unlike an episode of Neighbours, every match here seems to mean something. The short price value is on Swansea to leave Brighton all at sea. Mid price value lies in form Carlisle to beat jittery Bristol City, and Oldham to beat Crewe. Those who like their shots long could do worse than 8.0(ladbrokes) and 7.0(boylesports) on Rotherham and Bournemouth to cause some shocks. As usual cover with the draw, but Yeovil are having more problems at home than a tennant of Frank Spencer, Forest are also showing all the signs of stability of a Frank Spencer coffee table and it could be worth an interest in these two sides. Rotherham have the pressure off after relegation and Mark Robins men have shown lots of encouraging signs at the end of the season, maybe just too little to late. Bournemouth are battling relegation and needs the points and have the potential to worry Forest.
COCA COLA LEAGUE TWO
As the season nears end picking a winner becomes harder than ever but like a CHav on a Friday night were always willing to have a go, so here is a few League two games worth looking out for.
Bristol Rovers are good value at 2.2 (general) to beat Lincoln, Rovers are coming with a late run to make the playoff, while Lincoln seem to be doing everything in their power to avoid the playoffs. Barnet are good value not to lose at Grimsby at 3.28 the win(extrabet) 3.4 the draw(stan james/bet 365) the underhill boys are on a very good run of form including victories hartlepool and rochdale, while Grimsby took a tanking last weekend at Accrington 4-1.
For those who like their prices a little shorter a good home double banker is Swindon at home to the awful Mansfield and Wrexham at home to ready relegated Torquay.
SCOTLAND
EUROPE
RUGBY: In the Union code the Heineken Cup semi finals take place and it could be an all English final with like the champions league three out of the four semi finalists being English. Northampton will no doubt be distracted by a releagation battle and wasps should be backed at 1.91(tote/vc/uk betting) to cover an eight point handicap.
Elsewhere in the League code there are two big games with Hull v Bradford and the big one St Helens v Leeds, Leeds have had a great season but St Helens have been on a different level this week and can be backed with Huddersfield in a double at 2.28 with extrabet.
CRICKET:As the world cup super eight fizzles out quicker than a pop idol's career attention might turn this weekend to the domestic game that has started and those who haven't already had a bet for the league could do worse than Hampshire at 3.75 with betfred and sussex at 4.5 with boylesports. In League two Nottingham look great value at 3.75 with Boylesports.
SNOOKER WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS: Avoiding the O'Sullivan top half of the draw seems to be the way to go here, the top halfd of the draw is loaded with talent, the bottom not so.
Peter Ebdon at 15.0 (expekt and betfred) and Murphy 11.0(power and stan james) are where our money is going in the wide open botom half. At half the odds a final place wrth taking each way.
SPORT IN FOCUS
NBA BASKETBALL PLAYOFFS PREVIEW
Now things get interesting I'll be turning a lot of my attention to the NBA although I have to confess I'm very disappointed with the lack of bookies who get involved in this market here in the Uk, centrebet again are the ones who have at least made the effort.
TITLE ODDS
Dallas Mavericks
3.25 title/ 2.38 conference.
GOOD Wealth of talent, Dirk, Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, Howard.
BAD: Can Dirk do it in the big big games.
UGLY:The depth of the wild west means every game wil be a tough one for the Mavs even the Warriors.
BOTTOM LINE: Can make finals and at 3.25 with betfair are worth a small shout to make it there year. The 2.38 the conference is a little too short though.
San Antonio Spurs
6.2/4.5 conference
GOOD: Veteran experience, Tim Duncan, Ginobli, Parker, Horry,Poppovitch been there done that.
BAD: In the wrong conference have to adjust there game to the speed merchants.
UGLY: The lack of depth and aging legs could cost them with deep series against denver, phoenix and dallas.
BOTTOM LINE: It's battle of heads versus legs and in the head Spurs are the match for anyone, worth taking on small odds to in both conference and title.
Phoenix Suns
4.9/3.97 conference.
THE GOOD: Wealth of talent, Steve Nash bigtime player, Amare Stoudamire hungry, Marion, Thomas, Bell, Barbosa.
Caoch D'Antoni one of the best in the business.
THE BAD: Have to go through deep west and open against Lakers who caused them big problems last time.
THE UGLY: Lack of depth could tire them as not as deep as many of the other sides,plus play a fast high energy game, it cost them last year when series went long.
BOTTOM LINE: Suns have as good a chance as anyone and are my probable favourites but when you can get them and Dallas and San Antonio on side it's got to be done.
Detroit Pistons
9.2/2.88 conference
THE GOOD: Wallace/Prince/Billups all been there done that and in the weak east.
THE BAD: Chris Webber is no Ben Wallace
THE UGLY: Flip Saunder not as good at game tactics as many of the other coaches, somehow didn't win it last year when they had Ben Wallace and the record win season.
BOTTOM LINE: Much too short a price about a side who have no viable Shaq dealer, not to mention how they'll deal with the run and gun west sides.
Miami Heat
16/ 5.5 conference.
THE GOOD: defending champs, game on the line, pressure situation, there's few to trust more than riley, shaq and d-wade.
BAD: Got a tough first series against chicago, high pick and roll game might impact wade's shoulder, wallace can handle shaq.
THE UGLY:Vulnerable players d-wade and shaq are always one big injury away from total breakdown, also whether they have the hunger to repeat.
BOTTOM LINE: In a weak conference the 5.5 seems good value as long as Wade and Shaq stay healthy, Miami are a match for anyone out East.
Houston Rockets
27/ 15.5 Conference
THE GOOD: TMAC/YAO and the defence.
THE BAD: The deep west.
THE UGLY: Not as deep as other sides, a healthy in head and body bonzi wells would have been a huge difference maker sadly he's not there, in either sense.
THE BOTTOM LINE: On the day the Rockets can beat anyone and it could be worth siding with them in individual matches to pull off a few shocks.
Cleveland Cavaliers
22/5.9 conference
THE GOOD: because they have an easy first round game against injury plagued washington and King Lebron
THE BAD: King Lebron might find it easy to be like jordan in regular season but jordan did it time and time again in the playoffs, doubts over whether lebron can be like MJ.
THE UGLY: A lack of supporting cast, ther are no pippens/grant's or rodman's on the cavs.
THE BOTTOM LINE: The draw helps the cavs but Lebron will need some help not least from himself.
Utah Jazz
47.0/38.0 conference
THE GOOD: Jerry Sloan expert coach whose has been there and done it.
THE BAD: Young and lack of playoff savvy.
THE UGLY: Loss of Kirilenko is huge.
THE BOTTOM LINE: You can never underestimate a Jerry Sloan side not least because they have a habit of proving annoying opponents to the Rockets. The loss of Kirilenko turns them from value outsiders, to just outsiders.
Chicago Bulls
32/ 14.0 conference
THE GOOD: The addition and presence of ben wallace gives them a shaq killer.
THE BAD:Are they winners, choked against new jersey to cost them a much easier run to the title.
THE UGLY: That run they now must go through miami,detroit, possibly cleveland or new jersey and then the winners of the west, tough, very tough.
BOTTOM LINE. If Chicago can come through Miami and it's a big if they could be good value for the East at 14.0 there worth supporting.
Washington Wizards
260/101 conference
THE GOOD: Antwan Jamieson never say die.
THE BAD: The lack of his support.
THE UGLY: Because arenas and butler are huge players that are mssing, Arena their points, Butler their heartbeat.
Toronto Raptors
48/11.0 conference
THE Good:pace and speed could outrun anyone in the east.
the bad:bargani and mo pete out.
the ugly: missed washington, now have to play on fire new jersey the only other east side not to be outpaced.
bottom line: Toronto
Los Angeles Lakers
70/ 51.0 conference
the good: emperor kobe.
the bad: the rest of them.
the ugly: how they going to stop nash and stodamire.
the bottom line: nevermind the famous triangle they'll need the bermuda triangle to get out of the wild west.
Denver Nuggets
44/ 35.0 conference
the good: on paper match up well.
the bad: in experience and winning not so.
the ugly: nene and camby's foul trouble or melo's temper could cost them.
the bottom line: If a lot of elements click in the nuggets can cause lots of problems, but their elders Spurs should teach them a lesson or two about team basketball.
Golden State Warriors
250/ 101 conference
the good: regular season record against the mavs.
the bad: this is the playoffs.
the ugly: the mavs know how to get it done and have a wealth more options.
the bottom line: can cause the mavericks problems with their big guards and a coach who knows how to get inside drik-s head but should be happy just to be there.
Orlando Magic
150/51.0 conference
the good: hill and millic have a point to prove.howard will be difficult to deal with.
the bad:so do detroit.
the ugly: worst team in the playoffs.
the bottom line:should be happy to steal a game against the pistons.
New Jersey Nets
90
the good: kidd, carter mikki moore,hot form at right time.
the bad:
the ugly:no legit big man if they came up against the wallaces or shaq.
the bottom line:the nets can spring a few shocks or two but it's too much to ask them to go all the way.
RECOMMENDATIONS
PLAYOFF MATCHUPS: New Jersey can beat Toronto at 2.30 with Centrebet and a nice juicky stake should be placed, in a fifty fifty series Miami look good value at 2.20 to overcome Chicago.
East conference winner value bet : New Jersey Nets 20/1 Ladbrokes: This could be worth some small stakes as New Jersey can certainly overcome Toronto, they have no reason to fear Cleveland and that puts them in the Conference final.
EAST CONFERENCE WINNER: Miami and Chicago 5.5/ 7.0 ladbrokes. Slightly bigger stakes on these two, the bet is to oppose Detroit and both these sides have the capability of going all the way whoever wins this could well be the finalists in the western boys whipping race.
WEST CONFERENCE WINNER: Phoenix and San Antonio are both capable of winning the wild west and look value.
OVERALL WINNER: Dallas/Phoenix and San Antonio are the three teams I can see winning this and if you can hve them all on side and still be making profit then it needs to be done, big stakes on each of these will return wins, it's one of the biggest value bets of the year.
That's us for the weekend have a great sports weekend in the meanwhile I'm out of here quicker than a ticket for Bon Jovi at wembley, but with better hairstyles.
posted by richard mctiernan at 6:55 AM
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