TONIGHT'S PREVIEW
CHARLTON V BLACKBURN
I have to disagree and say that the value here lies with blackburn, there certainly worth a play on the draw away win double.
Here is my logic, if you say there is little in these sides then the odds compilers should not be offering blackburn 2.8 and 3.1 the draw with bet 365. Charlton have no wins in their last four premiership games while blackburn have four points from their last six games. The reason BET365 and others are taking on blackburn are a much better home side than away, with two wins and two draws from their last four home games, blackburn lost to both villa and west ham away.
However here is why it's worth taking these odds, not just because there's little in those sides, though that's a big play. But tactically blackburn are strongest in the middle of the park especially with tugay's return, while charlton have problems across the middle of the park, I expect blackburn to get a firm stranglehold in the middle here. Also they have goals in their side in Nonda and McCarthy, if charlton perist with their 4-5-1 it will make it easier for blackburn to keep it tight and hit them on the counter, using the strikers and the pace of players like pedersen and bentley.
Cover with the draw as blackburn have managed to get two away draws, including at liverpool, so they have it in them.
SPURS V BORO
Spurs should win they have a great home record, boro are poor on their travels, woodgate might be missing. I'm not going to get involved though at odds of 1.73, especially as spurs have some injuries question marks, though it's upto you if you think losing jenas is a low or not. Boro played not to badly against man united this weekend and keep thngs tight on their travels so all in not worth getting involved in.
What interests me is the odds on 4.3 for berbatov to score either first and last for spurs at bet365. You'd have to put two seperate stakes on but say 1.00 first and 1.00 last, brings you two pound stakes and you could win 4.3 if berbatov scores first or last. Spurs tend to score two or three when they score at home, and it seems unlikely to me that if fit and playing berbatov won't be involved in the goal action.
Interesting lot of league one fixtures this week, would advise not to much investment as some teams have rested and some played cup at the weekend, while also this league is known for being highly unpredictable.
SCUNTHORPE V TRANMERE: Second versus third makes for an interesting clash, a few weeks ago I could have easily called this a home win, but not now, much more difficult. Brian Laws left Scunthorpe for Sheff Wed and has been replaced by surely the only manager/assistant/physio in league football, Nigel Adkins. The results haven't been affected two much as Laws has left a very good side with goals in keogh and sharp, Tranmere for their part are having a very good turnaround season under ronnie moore. Both these side lost in the cup this weekend but not too much should be read into that.
In the league scunthorpe haven't lost since october 14, while tranmere have gone four games unbeaten, this should be a good one but I just go for scunthorpe as when you get better than 2.00 for a side with a home record like there's it is hard to ignore, Tranmere are on a good run but their are a little weaker away from home and this might just be one game too far, narrow home win.
BLACKPOOL V CHELTENHAM: Blackpool are on a very good run of form with only defeat in their last six, away to Tranmere which is a difficult place to travel. Cheltenham for their part sit 20th and have just six wins at nineteen, they also struggle to hit the back of the net. The only slight doubts are that two of those wins are away at yeovil and swansea and this is league one with some strange happenings. I would think blackpool would win, but at 1.7 and with four home draws,I'd be looking elsewhere for value.
BOURNMOUTH V NOTTINGHAM: Not sure I understand the odds here, Bournmouth have no league wins in twelve and forest have no defeats in their last six, they also have no away defeats this season. Bournmouth have slightly picked up with a draw in the league and cup in their lastt wo games, loan signings have been helping, however forest are a different level and nathan tyson's pace should case a slow backline massive problems, for me the odds of 2.05 are excellent from bet365, when others have forest at 1.8. Sure Forest played Sunday but they have enough depth in their squad to cope with this.
BRENTFORD V DONCASTER: This one seems another no brainer, brentford are on a horrendous run, with no league one win in 13 games. Meanwhile Doncaster are on a good run, three wins, two draws and just the one defeat from their last six games.
However I'd advise a bit of caution here, doncaster have a massive nine draws this season and brentford had a weekend rest, I can't see doncaster losing them but they need covering with the away win, draw double result.
BRIGHTON V SWANSEA: Both of these team have few key players out injured, Lee Trundle will be a big miss for swansea, however I do feel they have enough to avoid getting beat. Brighton have not won any of their last three home games, swansea meanwhile sit third in the six game form table, fallon knows where the net is and they have two clean sheets in their two league games. This could be tight but the away side are good value on the away draw double.
BRISTOL CITY V CARLISLE: This should probably be hled up as ablatant home, you have a bristl city side here with only one home defeat in nine, while carlisle have only one away win in nine. I'm not going to get involved though, Bristol city had a greulling cup tie just 48 hours earlier that stretched them all the way. It's a tough ask to get them up again so soon and they had a few knocks to key players at the weekend, carlisle one win came the other week and they on their day can play with any side. For me not a bet to get involved in.
LEYTON ORIENT V BRADFORD: ORIENT may sit bottom of the table, but only have one defeat in their last six matches, though they need to start converting draws into wins to get out of the danger zone. Bradford have no league win in seven and a poor away record. It is possible this could be orient's big win but I'll stay clear at those prices.
MILLWALL V HUDDERSFIELD: Neither of these sides are on a great run and this is a real pick em game in terms of result, both sides have leaky defences so goals could be an option, rather than the under, over market, I'd advise a small stake on hackett to score anytime at 5.5 with bet365. Huddersfield have one of the league's worst defences and will present millwall with opps, hackett is join top milwall scorer with 4 this season and has to be worth a small interest.
OLDHAM V CREWE: If someone said to you could get a side at evens who sit second in the form table, fifth in the league and only one home defeat in nine you'd be interested, however crewe are bizarre side, capable of beating anyone and then losing to anyone. The under/over market could be where to go, crewe have been over 2.5 goals in their last nine games, while oldham certainly know where the net is.
If you put a pound on at betdirect you can get three, four and five goals plus to be scored at odds that will all make a profit on one pound stakes.
PORT VALE V GILLINGHAM: Gillingham may only have one away win this season, but they may never have a better time, they were gutsy in coming back 4-3 against bristol city, they are playing some decent stuff and have only defeat in their last five league games, away to bristol city. Gillingham are as much as 3.05 at expekt and that's hard to ignore. There is little in these sides, in fact gillingham it higher in the league and port vale have no league win in eight games. The away win, draw double bet could come into effect here with gillingham's weak way record.
I've named a few and hope this is of help to people, my top three though are.
THREE:Hackett anytime scorer for millall and the total goals for the crewe and oldham game.
TWO: Win, draw double results on SCUNTHORPE, GILLINGHAM AND DONASTER.
ONE:FOREST AT 2.05 you'll not get a bigger price on them away this season.
good luck everyone
I have to disagree and say that the value here lies with blackburn, there certainly worth a play on the draw away win double.
Here is my logic, if you say there is little in these sides then the odds compilers should not be offering blackburn 2.8 and 3.1 the draw with bet 365. Charlton have no wins in their last four premiership games while blackburn have four points from their last six games. The reason BET365 and others are taking on blackburn are a much better home side than away, with two wins and two draws from their last four home games, blackburn lost to both villa and west ham away.
However here is why it's worth taking these odds, not just because there's little in those sides, though that's a big play. But tactically blackburn are strongest in the middle of the park especially with tugay's return, while charlton have problems across the middle of the park, I expect blackburn to get a firm stranglehold in the middle here. Also they have goals in their side in Nonda and McCarthy, if charlton perist with their 4-5-1 it will make it easier for blackburn to keep it tight and hit them on the counter, using the strikers and the pace of players like pedersen and bentley.
Cover with the draw as blackburn have managed to get two away draws, including at liverpool, so they have it in them.
SPURS V BORO
Spurs should win they have a great home record, boro are poor on their travels, woodgate might be missing. I'm not going to get involved though at odds of 1.73, especially as spurs have some injuries question marks, though it's upto you if you think losing jenas is a low or not. Boro played not to badly against man united this weekend and keep thngs tight on their travels so all in not worth getting involved in.
What interests me is the odds on 4.3 for berbatov to score either first and last for spurs at bet365. You'd have to put two seperate stakes on but say 1.00 first and 1.00 last, brings you two pound stakes and you could win 4.3 if berbatov scores first or last. Spurs tend to score two or three when they score at home, and it seems unlikely to me that if fit and playing berbatov won't be involved in the goal action.
Interesting lot of league one fixtures this week, would advise not to much investment as some teams have rested and some played cup at the weekend, while also this league is known for being highly unpredictable.
SCUNTHORPE V TRANMERE: Second versus third makes for an interesting clash, a few weeks ago I could have easily called this a home win, but not now, much more difficult. Brian Laws left Scunthorpe for Sheff Wed and has been replaced by surely the only manager/assistant/physio in league football, Nigel Adkins. The results haven't been affected two much as Laws has left a very good side with goals in keogh and sharp, Tranmere for their part are having a very good turnaround season under ronnie moore. Both these side lost in the cup this weekend but not too much should be read into that.
In the league scunthorpe haven't lost since october 14, while tranmere have gone four games unbeaten, this should be a good one but I just go for scunthorpe as when you get better than 2.00 for a side with a home record like there's it is hard to ignore, Tranmere are on a good run but their are a little weaker away from home and this might just be one game too far, narrow home win.
BLACKPOOL V CHELTENHAM: Blackpool are on a very good run of form with only defeat in their last six, away to Tranmere which is a difficult place to travel. Cheltenham for their part sit 20th and have just six wins at nineteen, they also struggle to hit the back of the net. The only slight doubts are that two of those wins are away at yeovil and swansea and this is league one with some strange happenings. I would think blackpool would win, but at 1.7 and with four home draws,I'd be looking elsewhere for value.
BOURNMOUTH V NOTTINGHAM: Not sure I understand the odds here, Bournmouth have no league wins in twelve and forest have no defeats in their last six, they also have no away defeats this season. Bournmouth have slightly picked up with a draw in the league and cup in their lastt wo games, loan signings have been helping, however forest are a different level and nathan tyson's pace should case a slow backline massive problems, for me the odds of 2.05 are excellent from bet365, when others have forest at 1.8. Sure Forest played Sunday but they have enough depth in their squad to cope with this.
BRENTFORD V DONCASTER: This one seems another no brainer, brentford are on a horrendous run, with no league one win in 13 games. Meanwhile Doncaster are on a good run, three wins, two draws and just the one defeat from their last six games.
However I'd advise a bit of caution here, doncaster have a massive nine draws this season and brentford had a weekend rest, I can't see doncaster losing them but they need covering with the away win, draw double result.
BRIGHTON V SWANSEA: Both of these team have few key players out injured, Lee Trundle will be a big miss for swansea, however I do feel they have enough to avoid getting beat. Brighton have not won any of their last three home games, swansea meanwhile sit third in the six game form table, fallon knows where the net is and they have two clean sheets in their two league games. This could be tight but the away side are good value on the away draw double.
BRISTOL CITY V CARLISLE: This should probably be hled up as ablatant home, you have a bristl city side here with only one home defeat in nine, while carlisle have only one away win in nine. I'm not going to get involved though, Bristol city had a greulling cup tie just 48 hours earlier that stretched them all the way. It's a tough ask to get them up again so soon and they had a few knocks to key players at the weekend, carlisle one win came the other week and they on their day can play with any side. For me not a bet to get involved in.
LEYTON ORIENT V BRADFORD: ORIENT may sit bottom of the table, but only have one defeat in their last six matches, though they need to start converting draws into wins to get out of the danger zone. Bradford have no league win in seven and a poor away record. It is possible this could be orient's big win but I'll stay clear at those prices.
MILLWALL V HUDDERSFIELD: Neither of these sides are on a great run and this is a real pick em game in terms of result, both sides have leaky defences so goals could be an option, rather than the under, over market, I'd advise a small stake on hackett to score anytime at 5.5 with bet365. Huddersfield have one of the league's worst defences and will present millwall with opps, hackett is join top milwall scorer with 4 this season and has to be worth a small interest.
OLDHAM V CREWE: If someone said to you could get a side at evens who sit second in the form table, fifth in the league and only one home defeat in nine you'd be interested, however crewe are bizarre side, capable of beating anyone and then losing to anyone. The under/over market could be where to go, crewe have been over 2.5 goals in their last nine games, while oldham certainly know where the net is.
If you put a pound on at betdirect you can get three, four and five goals plus to be scored at odds that will all make a profit on one pound stakes.
PORT VALE V GILLINGHAM: Gillingham may only have one away win this season, but they may never have a better time, they were gutsy in coming back 4-3 against bristol city, they are playing some decent stuff and have only defeat in their last five league games, away to bristol city. Gillingham are as much as 3.05 at expekt and that's hard to ignore. There is little in these sides, in fact gillingham it higher in the league and port vale have no league win in eight games. The away win, draw double bet could come into effect here with gillingham's weak way record.
I've named a few and hope this is of help to people, my top three though are.
THREE:Hackett anytime scorer for millall and the total goals for the crewe and oldham game.
TWO: Win, draw double results on SCUNTHORPE, GILLINGHAM AND DONASTER.
ONE:FOREST AT 2.05 you'll not get a bigger price on them away this season.
good luck everyone
posted by richard mctiernan at 12:13 AM
2 Comments:
Like you, I was really surprised by the odds on Bournemouth, but more surprised by the result!
cheers for the comment over or under, would like to think it was down to forest being tired, or bournmouth good form, but the market was shall we say a little bit weird in its movements.
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